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Will a ceasefire be announced in a major conflict during 2026?

Geopolitics

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Overview

Resolves YES if an official ceasefire is publicly announced in a major ongoing conflict before December 31, 2026.

Chance over time

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Probability updates as orders are placed. Initial state 50/50.

KSh 103.0K Vol.ConnectingSep 15, 2026
Yes

Est. profit

Est. cost KSh 5.00 at 50¢

KSh 5.00

Market depth & impact

Best bid

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Best ask

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Est. average fill

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Price impact

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Total settlement value if this outcome wins: KSh 10.00 before fees.

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Holders & activity

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